World Covid Meter 18th May: Living with COVID 1.0:

May 19, 2020

Author: Dr. KK Aggarwal

End Fear of Pandemic !

India

healthysoch

New Delhi, May 19, 2020 :

212 Countries affected, Crosses 4.80 M, Nearly 95K cases and 4-5K deaths per day

Minimum Likely Deaths: 323393

Total cases to cross 5 M by 21st May

Lockdown in north-eastern China – A new virus cluster in Jilin, another in Shulan, 8,000 people in quarantine. Beijing health authorities said it was no longer necessary to wear masks outdoors.

World Cases: 1M: April 2, 2 M: April 15, 3 M: April 27, 4 M: May 8; 5 Million by ?21 May

Ground Zero Wuhan – 1st Case in live animal market or cafeteria for animal pathogens: 10th January.

Total cases are based on RT PCR which has only 67% sensitivity. Does not include clinical cases.

Doubling time India 12 days, USA 27 days, UK 27 days, Spain 40 days, Russia 13 days, Italy 46 days, Brazil 11 days, France 41 days, Germany 44 days, Turkey 30 days, Malaysia 42 days, Singapore 20 days, China 67 days, HK 50 days.

Latest News:

May 6, WHO: Well-designed human challenge studies allowed [typhoid, cholera, zika] in young healthy adults [18-30 years, hospitalization rate 1%, fatal infection rates 0.03%.] March 27 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report: 20.8% of patients aged 20-44 had severe disease and 4.2% of patients developed critical disease.

Males: More ACE2 cells or androgens [Prostate cancer patients on androgen deprivation therapy less infected (May 7 Annals of Oncology)]

For test to work in a disease that affects 2%-3% of the population, an antibody test with at least 99.7% specificity is needed.

ICN: Over 90,000 healthcare workers worldwide are infected with COVID-19. Over 260 have died. Russia’s medical workers: thousands infected, and over 180 died.

Over 50% cases still active. Among the top 15 most affected countries, the UK has the highest proportion of active cases, at 85%. This is followed by Russia at 80%. The next is the US at 72%. In Germany, only 10% of the cases are currently active. By comparison, 63% in India are yet to see an outcome.

Other deaths: CDC 24,000 – 62,000 people died from influenza during the 2019-2020 season (through April 4).

Situation Around the Globe: Likely minimum deaths (316671 + 44817 x 15 = 6723) = 323393

Coronavirus Cases: 4,801,875

Deaths: 316,671

Recovered: 1,858,170

ACTIVE CASES: 2,627,034

Currently Infected Patients 2,582,217 (98%) in Mild Condition

44,817 (2%) Serious or Critical

CLOSED CASES: 2,174,841

Cases which had an outcome: 1,858,170 (85%) Recovered/Discharged

316,671 (15%) Deaths

616 cases per million population (India 66) AND

40.6 deaths per million population (India 2)

India in top 11; will cross 100,000 by 19th May; Doubling time: 13 days

Country,Other TotalCases NewCases TotalDeaths NewDeaths TotalRecovered ActiveCases Serious,Critical Tot Cases/1M pop Deaths/1M pop TotalTests Tests/1M pop Population
India 95,698 5050 3,025 154 36,795 55,878 69 2 2,227,642 1,616 1,378,344,732
Total: 4,801,875 +2,609 316,671 +151 1,858,170 2,627,034 44,817 616.0 40.6

 

Date Daily new cases New Deaths Total cases Total Deaths
17th May 5050 154 95698 3025
16th May 4864 118 90648 2781
15th May 3787 104 85784 2753
14th may 3942 98 81997 2649
13thMay 3763 136 78055 2551
12th May 3524 121 74292 2415
11 May 3607 82 70,768 2294
10 May 4353 111 67161 2212
9 May 3113 116 62808 2101
8 May 3344 96 59695 1985
7 May 3364 104 56351 1889
6 May 3587 92 52987 1785
5 May 2963 127 49400 1693
4 May 3932 175 46437 1566
3 May 3062 68 42505 1391
2 May 2547 79 39699 1323
1 May 2212 81 37257 1223
30 April 1978 75 34863 1154
29 April 1804 71 33062 1079
28 April 1724 66 31324 1008
27 April 1680 61 29451 939
26 April 1668 53 27890 881
25 April 1617 54 26283 825
24 April 1638 48 24447 780
23 April 1456 45 23039 721
22 April 1500 43 21370 681
21 April 1251 40 20080 592
20 April 1239 42 18539 559

India predictions

  1. Delhi cases 0.04%, Maharashtra 0.02% and Gujarat 0.01% of the population
  2. >90% of people are symptomatic within 2 weeks of infection
  3. Death Rates 3.20%; Corrected Death Rate 7.3% [China 5.58%]
  4. Doubling time India 12 days, USA 27 days, UK 27 days, Spain 40 days, Russia 13 days, Italy 46 days, Brazil 11 days, France 41 days, Germany 44 days, Turkey 30 days.
  5. Estimated cases in India: Number of deaths x 85 (number of serious patients 14 days before): On May 4 with 175 new deaths, on 20thApril expected serious cases would have been 666; expected cases 4440 as against 1239 reported (Undiagnosed cases  >75%)
  6. Undocumented cases for each documented case – Iceland: 1: 2; Germany: 1: 5; New York City grocery store shoppers: 1: 10;California 1.5%
  7. If we take New York as bench-mark, minimum mortality 0.75% (Number of cases on 20th278900)
  8. Death rates: on 8thMay: World: 6.9%; Europe: 9.6%; North America: 6 %; Asia: 3.4%; South America: 5.1%; Africa: 3.8%; Oceania: 1.4%
  9. Deaths per Million Population: USA: 232; Spain: 558; World: 34; India: 2
  10. 10thMay: % of tests positive – USA 15%, Italy 8.7%, UK 12.4%, Spain 10.4%, India 3.9%
  11. Mortality on 11thMay: Delhi 1%; Maharashtra 3.7%; Gujarat 6%; MP 5.9%; Kerala 0.78%; Rajasthan 2.8%; Andhra Pradesh 2.3%; Bihar 0.9%; West Bengal 9.5%; UP 2.3%
  12. Test Positive – West Bengal 4.4%; Gujarat 7.2%; MP: 5%; Delhi 7.3%; Kerala 1.3; Maharashtra 9.8%; Rajasthan 2.3%; UP 2.7%
  13. 3rdLock down effect: May 3 Number of cases 3062; till 9th May all cases are prior to lock down 3.0 effect; 10th May onwards extra cases post lock down 3.0 effect

Total cases and deaths across the world :

# Country,Other TotalCases NewCases TotalDeaths NewDeaths TotalRecovered ActiveCases Serious,Critical Tot Cases/1M pop Deaths/1M pop TotalTests Tests/1M pop Population
World 4,799,266 +82,257 316,520 +3,618 1,856,566 2,626,180 44,823 616 40.6
1 USA 1,527,664 +19,891 90,978 +865 346,389 1,090,297 16,355 4,619 275 11,875,580 35,903 330,769,370
2 Russia 281,752 +9,709 2,631 +94 67,373 211,748 2,300 1,931 18 6,916,088 47,394 145,927,122
3 Spain 277,719 +1,214 27,650 +87 195,945 54,124 1,152 5,940 591 3,037,840 64,977 46,752,654
4 UK 243,695 +3,534 34,636 +170 N/A N/A 1,559 3,592 511 2,580,769 38,040 67,843,268
5 Brazil 241,080 +7,938 16,118 +485 94,122 130,840 8,318 1,135 76 735,224 3,462 212,376,810
6 Italy 225,435 +675 31,908 +145 125,176 68,351 762 3,728 528 3,004,960 49,692 60,472,166
7 France 179,569 +204 28,108 +483 61,213 90,248 2,087 2,752 431 1,384,633 21,218 65,256,433
8 Germany 176,651 +407 8,049 +22 153,400 15,202 1,166 2,109 96 3,147,771 37,584 83,752,125
9 Turkey 149,435 +1,368 4,140 +44 109,962 35,333 914 1,774 49 1,624,994 19,293 84,227,597
10 Iran 120,198 +1,806 6,988 +51 94,464 18,746 2,705 1,433 83 686,935 8,191 83,859,705
11 India 95,698 +5,050 3,025 +154 36,795 55,878 69 2 2,227,642 1,616 1,378,344,732

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