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- When will the Pandemic End?
- More than 80% population is fully vaccinated ( termed `HYBRID IMMUNITY)
India
healthysoch
New Delhi, June 09, 2022:
We all are expecting END of this pandemic which has changed our life and no one would forget the scare and loss of lives to this virus infection. There are lots of speculations regarding end of Pandemic which seems a `wishful thinking’.
With new variants of Omicron, it is obvious that vaccination gives limited protection against infection. Fortunately benefit against severe disease, Hospitalisation and death continues. It is also true that new variants of Omicron are more transmissible hence leads to infection amongst people who are previously infected and vaccinated.
For India, all expert believe that a large proportion are already infected (at least once) and more than 80% population is fully vaccinated ( termed `HYBRID IMMUNITY). Hybrid immunity gives greatest protection hence we are in some what `comfort zone’ as far as severe disease in concerned.
Some scientific facts should be understood. The immunity to covid wanes with time (both vaccination and natural). Therefore, it is essential to take booster dose to enhance the same. The Israel study has proven that 2nd booster leads to reduced rate of infection, Hospitalisation and deaths , especially among elderly and immunocompromised.
Finally there is complacency for using mask. Seeing people around without masks makes a person uncomfortable using this protection. However, using `ONE WAY MASK’ (the person wearing mask and others without mask) gives significant protection as per the study. Therefore, there is a case for using this protection to your advantage.
These are the most probable reasons (Variants) for current surge in cases in India. The Covid infection is there to stay for some time (No one knows the time frame), hence we should be prepared for covid appropriate behaviour and come forward for booster dose even if the present transmission is low. The future is unpredictable due to new variants pouring in now and then.
Salient Features:
• US infections are again rising Due to emergence of the BA.1, BA.1.1, BA.2, and BA.2.12.1. variants and also the limited durability of protection from infection both from vaccination and prior infection, and lifting of mandates (such as mask use)
• Several lineages and sub-lineages have emerged. The most common now are BA.1, BA.1.1, BA.2, and BA.2.12.1.with high contagiousness
• The clinical manifestations of BA.2 infection are similar to those of BA.1, with mild upper respiratory symptoms. In addition, many patients have gastrointestinal symptoms (eg, diarrhea, nausea,and vomiting)
• Prior infection with BA.1 appears to offer minimal cross-immunity to BA.2.12.1, thus people who had Omicron infection with BA.1 can also get infected with BA.2.12.1
• Two other variants, BA.4 and BA.5, have recently emerged in South Africa and in Europe which are more transmissible
Author : G C Khilnani Chairman, PSRI Institute of Pulmonary, Critical care and Sleep Medicine. Formerly, Professor and Head, Dept of Pulmonary Med AIIMS, N Delhi
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