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Author :Dr K K Aggarwal, President CMAAO, HCFI, Past National President IMA, Chief Editor Medtalks
(With inputs from Dr Monica Vasudev)
India
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New Delhi, May 12, 2020 :
Three drugs better
Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 receiving a combination therapy with three antivirals, including-protease inhibitor lopinavir-ritonavir (Kaletra), nucleoside analogue ribavirin, and injectable interferon beta-1b (Betaseron, Extavia), exhibited significantly shorter median time to a negative SARS-CoV-2 test compared to controls, revealed a small phase II trial. Median number of days from initiation of study treatment to a negative test result, the trials primary endpoint, was 7 days compared with 12 days in the control group that only received lopinavir-ritonavir, reported Kwok-Yung Yuen, MD, of the University of Hong Kong, and colleagues writing in The Lancet.
COVID formulas revisited
Documented PCR-positive COVID-19 cases are just the tip of the iceberg.
- In US, 5.7% of people in that tip have died.
- How much iceberg is under the water?
Steamroller COVID:
There were roughly two undocumented cases of COVID-19 for each documented case in a paper from Iceland. This implies that a ton of people are still susceptible to the disease. No herd immunity is developing, and the mortality rate is high, and that were going to be stuck inside for a long time.
However, of late, using antibody tests, researchers are sampling asymptomatic people to figure out who had the disease. In early April, researchers from Germany published a study, which found that 70 out of 500 people tested in a hard-hit area had coronavirus antibodies. That amounts to 14%. Translating that to the entire population puts the ratio of undocumented to documented COVID-19 at about 5 to 1.
A much criticized California seroprevalence study involving 3300 individuals noted that 50 were positive, amounting to merely 1.5%, but in an area that hadnt seen many symptomatic cases, putting the undocumented-to-documented ratio at 85 to 1.
Windstorm COVID:
Governor Andrew Cuomo reported that sampling of New York City grocery store shoppers (perhaps not the most random sample) exhibited a seroprevalence rate of about 20%. This translates to an undocumented-to-documented ratio of 10 to 1. This scenario allows us to open up more quickly, assuming that antibodies are protective.
So which COVID is it ?
Antibody tests: No test is perfect. The false positives are particularly high. Consider that you have an antibody test that is 98% specific. This means that only 2 out of 100 people will go on to have a false positive. It will be estimated that 2% of the population has had the disease. If that is done in a random sample of America, youd estimate that there have been 6 million coronavirus infections, compared with the roughly 1 million weve detected, thus allowing you to cut the death rate down by a factor of 6.
However, that result was just due to random chance. A 95% specific test would conclude that at least 15 million Americans have already had exposure, allowing you to take the observed death rate of 5.7% and reduce it to a much more comfortable 0.3%.
Mutation:
Scientists have cautioned that a mutation called D614G in the Spike protein region of the SARS-CoV-2 virus “is of urgent concern,” as it makes the virus more contagious.
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