World Covid Meter 18th May: Living with COVID 1.0:

Author: Dr. KK Aggarwal

End Fear of Pandemic !

India

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New Delhi, May 19, 2020 :

212 Countries affected, Crosses 4.80 M, Nearly 95K cases and 4-5K deaths per day

Minimum Likely Deaths: 323393

Total cases to cross 5 M by 21^st May

Lockdown in north-eastern China – A new virus cluster in Jilin, another in Shulan, 8,000 people in quarantine. Beijing health authorities said it was no longer necessary to wear masks outdoors.

World Cases: 1M: April 2, 2 M: April 15, 3 M: April 27, 4 M: May 8; 5 Million by ?21 May

Ground Zero Wuhan – 1^st Case in live animal market or cafeteria for animal pathogens: 10th January.

Total cases are based on RT PCR which has only 67% sensitivity. Does not include clinical cases.

Doubling time India 12 days, USA 27 days, UK 27 days, Spain 40 days, Russia 13 days, Italy 46 days, Brazil 11 days, France 41 days, Germany 44 days, Turkey 30 days, Malaysia 42 days, Singapore 20 days, China 67 days, HK 50 days.

Latest News:

May 6, WHO: Well-designed human challenge studies allowed [typhoid, cholera, zika] in young healthy adults [18-30 years, hospitalization rate 1%, fatal infection rates 0.03%.] March 27 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report: 20.8% of patients aged 20-44 had severe disease and 4.2% of patients developed critical disease.

Males: More ACE2 cells or androgens [Prostate cancer patients on androgen deprivation therapy less infected (May 7 Annals of Oncology)]

For test to work in a disease that affects 2%-3% of the population, an antibody test with at least 99.7% specificity is needed.

ICN: Over 90,000 healthcare workers worldwide are infected with COVID-19. Over 260 have died. Russia’s medical workers: thousands infected, and over 180 died.

Over 50% cases still active. Among the top 15 most affected countries, the UK has the highest proportion of active cases, at 85%. This is followed by Russia at 80%. The next is the US at 72%. In Germany, only 10% of the cases are currently active. By comparison, 63% in India are yet to see an outcome.

Other deaths: CDC 24,000 – 62,000 people died from influenza during the 2019-2020 season (through April 4).

Situation Around the Globe: Likely minimum deaths (316671 + 44817 x 15 = 6723) = 323393

Coronavirus Cases: 4,801,875

Deaths: 316,671

Recovered: 1,858,170

ACTIVE CASES: 2,627,034

Currently Infected Patients 2,582,217 (98%) in Mild Condition

44,817 (2%) Serious or Critical

CLOSED CASES: 2,174,841

Cases which had an outcome: 1,858,170 (85%) Recovered/Discharged

316,671 (15%) Deaths

616 cases per million population (India 66) AND

40.6 deaths per million population (India 2)

India in top 11; will cross 100,000 by 19^th May; Doubling time: 13 days

India predictions

1. Delhi cases 0.04%, Maharashtra 0.02% and Gujarat 0.01% of the population
2. >90% of people are symptomatic within 2 weeks of infection
3. Death Rates 3.20%; Corrected Death Rate 7.3% [China 5.58%]
4. Doubling time India 12 days, USA 27 days, UK 27 days, Spain 40 days, Russia 13 days, Italy 46 days, Brazil 11 days, France 41 days, Germany 44 days, Turkey 30 days.
5. Estimated cases in India: Number of deaths x 85 (number of serious patients 14 days before): On May 4 with 175 new deaths, on 20^thApril expected serious cases would have been 666; expected cases 4440 as against 1239 reported (Undiagnosed cases  >75%)
6. Undocumented cases for each documented case – Iceland: 1: 2; Germany: 1: 5; New York City grocery store shoppers: 1: 10;California 1.5%
7. If we take New York as bench-mark, minimum mortality 0.75% (Number of cases on 20^th278900)
8. Death rates: on 8^thMay: World: 6.9%; Europe: 9.6%; North America: 6 %; Asia: 3.4%; South America: 5.1%; Africa: 3.8%; Oceania: 1.4%
9. Deaths per Million Population: USA: 232; Spain: 558; World: 34; India: 2
10. 10^thMay: % of tests positive – USA 15%, Italy 8.7%, UK 12.4%, Spain 10.4%, India 3.9%
11. Mortality on 11^thMay: Delhi 1%; Maharashtra 3.7%; Gujarat 6%; MP 5.9%; Kerala 0.78%; Rajasthan 2.8%; Andhra Pradesh 2.3%; Bihar 0.9%; West Bengal 9.5%; UP 2.3%
12. Test Positive – West Bengal 4.4%; Gujarat 7.2%; MP: 5%; Delhi 7.3%; Kerala 1.3; Maharashtra 9.8%; Rajasthan 2.3%; UP 2.7%
13. 3^rdLock down effect: May 3 Number of cases 3062; till 9^th May all cases are prior to lock down 3.0 effect; 10^th May onwards extra cases post lock down 3.0 effect

Total cases and deaths across the world :

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